Yasmine Arsalane, World Energy Outlook analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), held the seventh lesson at the fourth edition of the Siena International School on Sustainable Development. Here are some of the key points to remember:
First of all, the three main aspects to act on that she highlighted are as follows:
- Solar PV and Wind energy which must be multiplied by 4 times;
- Electric car sales which nowadays are 18 times lower that 2030 scenario;
- Energy intensity of GDP that should be reduced by -4% annually by 2030.
Although technologies exist to achieve the required deep cuts in global emissions by 2030, staying on the narrow path to net-zero necessitates their immediate and widespread implementation. The following are several facts to keep in mind on the pathway to achieving the global objectives:
- Clean energy R&D and $90 billion in demonstrations by 2030, such as refrigerant-free advanced cooling, hydrogen-based steel and advanced batteries, will be required to unlock the next generation of low carbon technologies. Without greater international cooperation, global CO2 will not fall to net-zero by 2050.
- Electricity demand continues to rise on a path to net-zero, accounting for half of total consumption by 2050. Electrification of transport and industry, as well as hydrogen production are driving this trend, which is moderated by energy efficiency;
- New policies, technology cost reductions, and the pandemic have all helped to bring the projected emissions curve down, particularly thanks to the work of intermediation between states at COP26 Glasgow. However, the announced pledges and the net zero emissions scenario are still far apart.
- The energy transition is not only related to climate change but also to new market opportunities. Explosive growth in clean energy deployment over the next decades could create a market opportunity for manufacturers of key equipment worth a cumulative USD 27 trillion through 2050.
- In 2021, increased use of coal was the main factor that drove up global energy related CO2 emissions by over 2 billion tonnes, reaching their largest annual rise in absolute terms and their highest level of emissions.
- Oil and gas investment is geared toward a world of stagnant or falling demand, while transition-related spending is not rising nearly fast enough to meet future energy needs.
- As of the end of March, governments around the world have earmarked over USD 710 billion in sustainable recovery measures, which is 40% more than what was spent after the global financial crisis.
